The following articles (co-)authored by CriticalEarth ESRs have been published:
2025
Romé, Y. M., Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Swingedouw, D., Sherriff-Tadano, S., & Börner, R. Simulated millennial-scale climate variability driven by a convection–advection oscillator. Climate Dynamics 63, 150 (2025)
Ashwin, P., Newman, J., & Römer, R. Contrasting Chaotic and Stochastic Forcing: Tipping Windows and Attractor Crises. SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems 24, 277–316 (2025) [accepted version]
Lu, F., et al. [including Ben-Yami, M.] Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature Communications 16, 477 (2025)
2024
Jacques-Dumas, V., Dijkstra, H. A., & Kuehn, C. Resilience of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 34, 123162 (2024)
Börner, R., Deeley, R., Römer, R., Grafke, T., Lucarini, V., & Feudel, U. Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems. Physical Review Research 6, L042053 (2024)
Mehling, O., Bellomo, K., & von Hardenberg, J. Centennial-Scale Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP6 Models Shaped by Arctic–North Atlantic Interactions and Sea Ice Biases. Geophysical Research Letters 51, e2024GL110791 (2024)
Bernuzzi, P., Düx, A. F. S., & Kuehn, C. Early warning signs for SPDEs with continuous spectrum. European Journal of Applied Mathematics (2024)
Bernuzzi, P., Dijkstra, H. A., & Kuehn, C. Warning signs for boundary noise and their application to an ocean Boussinesq model. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 470, 134391 (2024)
Jacques-Dumas, V., van Westen, R. M., & Dijkstra, H. A. Estimation of AMOC transition probabilities using a machine learning based rare-event algorithm. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems 3, e240002 (2024)
van Westen, R. M., Jacques-Dumas, V., Boot, A. A., & Dijkstra, H. A. The Role of Sea-ice Insulation Effects on the Probability of AMOC Transitions. Journal of Climate 37, 6269–6284 (2024)
Ben-Yami, M., Good, P., Jackson, L. C., Crucifix, M., Hu, A., Saenko, O., Swingedouw, D., & Boers, N. Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison. Earth’s Future 12, e2023EF003959 (2024)
Chapman, R., Sinet, S., & Ritchie, P. D. L. Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Weather 79, 316–323 (2024)
Ben-Yami, M., Morr, A., Bathiany, S., & Boers, N. Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data. Science Advances 10, eadl4841 (2024)
Blaschke, L. L., Nian, D., Bathiany, S., Ben-Yami, M., Smith, T., Boulton, C. A., & Boers, N. Spatial Correlation Increase in Single-Sensor Satellite Data Reveals Loss of Amazon Rainforest Resilience. Earth’s Future 12, e2023EF004040 (2024)
Swierczek-Jereczek, J., & Datseris, G. TransitionsInTimeseries.jl: A performant, extensible and reliable software for reproducible detection and prediction of transitions in timeseries. Journal of Open Source Software 9, 6464 (2024)
Sinet, S., Ashwin, P., von der Heydt, A. S., & Dijkstra, H. A. AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise. Earth System Dynamics 15, 859–873 (2024)
Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Latychev, K., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., & Mitrovica, J. FastIsostasy v1.0 – a regional, accelerated 2D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model accounting for the lateral variability of the solid Earth. Geoscientific Model Development 17, 5263–5290 (2024)
Nian, D., Bathiany, S., Sakschewski, B., Drüke, M., Blaschke, L., Ben-Yami, M., von Bloh, W., & Boers, N. Rainfall seasonality dominates critical precipitation threshold for the Amazon forest in the LPJmL vegetation model. Science of The Total Environment 947, 174378 (2024)
Kypke, K. & Ditlevsen, P. On the representation of multiplicative noise in modeling Dansgaard–Oeschger events. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 466, 134215 (2024)
Bellomo, K. & Mehling, O. Impacts and State-Dependence of AMOC Weakening in a Warming Climate. Geophysical Research Letters 51, e2023GL107624 (2024)
Wunderling, N., von der Heydt, A. S., et al. [including Sinet, S.] Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review. Earth System Dynamics 15, 41–74 (2024)
2023
Mehling, O., Börner, R. & Lucarini, V. Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 459, 134043 (2024)
Nian, D., Bathiany, S., Ben-Yami, M., Blaschke, L. L., Hirota, M., Rodrigues, R. R., & Boers, N. A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 470 (2023)
Ben-Yami, M., Skiba, V., Bathiany, S. & Boers, N. Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation. Nature Communications 14, 8344 (2023)
Fohlmeister, J., Sekhon, N., Columbu, A., Vettoretti, G., Weitzel, N., Rehfeld, K., Veiga-Pires, C., Ben-Yami, M., Marwan, N. & Boers, N. Global reorganization of atmospheric circulation during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120, e2302283120 (2023)
Hamilton, O., Demaeyer, J., Vannitsem, S. & Crucifix, M. Multistability in a coupled ocean–atmosphere reduced-order model: Nonlinear temperature equations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 149, 3423–3439 (2023)
Jacques-Dumas, V., van Westen, R. M., Bouchet, F. & Dijkstra, H. A. Data-driven methods to estimate the committor function in conceptual ocean models. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 30, 195–216 (2023)
Bernuzzi, P. & Kuehn, C. Bifurcations and Early-Warning Signs for SPDEs with Spatial Heterogeneity. Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations 37, 191–235 (2025)
Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Robinson, A., Blasco, J., Alvarez-Solas, J. & Montoya, M. Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping. Scientific Reports 13, 2104 (2023)
Sinet, S., von der Heydt, A. S. & Dijkstra, H. A. AMOC Stabilization Under the Interaction With Tipping Polar Ice Sheets. Geophysical Research Letters 50, e2022GL100305 (2023)
2022
Mehling, O., Bellomo, K., Angeloni, M., Pasquero, C. & von Hardenberg, J. High-latitude precipitation as a driver of multicentennial variability of the AMOC in a climate model of intermediate complexity. Climate Dynamics 61, 1519–1534 (2023)